Packers-49ers scouting report for Week 11
November 21st, 2009 | by adamburnett |The 5-4 Packers have been an erratic team this season with losses to Vikings (twice), Bengals, and Bucs. They defeated the Bears, Lions, Rams, Browns, and Cowboys. One win over a quality team and a loss to a winless team in the last two weeks. This is how the NFL goes teams have ups and downs during 16 games. This week the Pack faces the 4-5 San Francisco 49ers. The Niners are coming off a home win against the Bears last Thursday. Head Coach Mike Singletary has tried to change the culture in the bay and has made progress. The team has some tremendous young players to build around in Patrick Willis, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree. Davis leads all tight ends with 7 scores. Frank Gore is a dual threat that serves as the bell cow of this offense. Alex Smith has yet to develop into a starting caliber quarterback. Offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye calls a very conservative ground-short passing attack. They don’t attack down the field much and try to play ball control. Smith has had injuries to deal with along with too many coaching changes to be successful. I don’t know that he’s capable of going at Charles Woodson or Al Harris.
The Packers are 8th in total offense and the 49ers are 18th in total defense. The 49ers are 27th in total offense while the Packers are 4th in total defense. San Francisco has had injuries in the secondary with the loss of corner Nate Clements and I think the Packers can hurt them deep. Safety Michael Lewis is a terrific player in run support, but struggles in coverage. Dashon Goldson is an upgrade over Mark Roman. Dre Bly is a player I’ve always felt gambled too much. I don’t think the Niners have enough quality depth in the secondary to cover the Packers if they spread out 4 or 5 wide. San Francisco also uses a 3-4 defense that has tremendous talent in the linebacking corps. Patrick Willis is second in the NFL with 88 tackles. Takeo Spikes is still an impact player despite losing some of his athletic gifts. Isaac Sopoaga, Aubrayo Franklin, and Justin Smith do a good job of keeping the linebackers clean. The 49ers give up 87.7 yards per game on the ground and 248.3 passing yards. I would anticipate the Packers trying to use the short passing game to set up the rushing attack. Then I’d bomb the Niners secondary deep. I don’t know that I would use Ryan Grant this week in fantasy if I had other capable options.
The Packers defense will get back Brandon Chillar this week after missing the last couple of weeks with a hand injury. I’m not sure how his hand will hinder his ability to rap up. If Chillar can’t go against Vernon Davis, then Charles Woodson will draw the assignment. The Packers have struggled with tight ends in recent years, but this season has been a different story. Capers has done a good job of limiting the damage by opposing tight ends. Clay Matthews was named the NFL Rookie of the week for his two fumble recoveries and sack against the Cowboys. Matthews also won the award for week 6 and has really grown into his role in the defense. Aaron Kampman should also return after missing last week with a concussion. Brad Jones made 7 tackles last week against the Cowboys. Kampman hasn’t produced this season as we’d like in his new role. However I don’t believe it’s remotely close to time to bench Kampman for Jones.
Much has been said this week comparing the draft selections of Aaron Rodgers-Alex Smith and A.J. Hawk-Vernon Davis however the one that I will pay the most attention to is B.J. Raji-Michael Crabtree. I understand why the Packers decided to select Raji with the transition to the 3-4 defense. The Packers have a deep core of wide outs and Crabtree would have just been an additional piece to a strong area. Raji has been bothered by an ankle injury for much of his rookie campaign. We really haven’t seen what Raji is capable of doing. Crabtree held out for much of the season, but has already shown his skills in limited action. I have always supported the selection of the best player available regardless of position. Studs win in professional sports and I have a hard time passing on a potential stud to fill a need. Their careers are just getting started, but I would have drafted Crabtree with that selection. Free agency and the salary cap mean teams change each season. Crabtree would have allowed you to trade Jones or Nelson for something else. Driver is in his mid 30’s and how much longer he’ll play isn’t public knowledge. I believe it’s easier to find a stud nose tackle over a stud receiver.
Looking at the matchups I would anticipate the Packers attacking the 49ers through the air. The 49ers will try to grind the ball out with a conservative attack. The Packers defense must play physical against the 49ers and make Alex Smith beat them. He has the weapons to work with, but doesn’t use them to the fullest. This is an opportunity to knock off a wild card competitor.
